Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c11…ef93 other 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$621 (+4%) realized +$1,019 · open −$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%167W / 95L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$78
14 days+$535
30 days+$867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$854
sports 25% −$111
world 16% −$115
crypto 9% +$53
politics 3% −$108
finance 1% +$6
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 36% -16.5%
≤30d 71 +7.6% -2.6% 55% 44% +5.0%
≤90d 262 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 41% -3.1%
all 262 +4.1% -5.8% 64% 41% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 41% -3.1%
10% -14.9% 29% -12.4%
15% -23.1% 20% -20.8%
20% -30.6% 15% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses167 / 95
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions18
Markets (closed)262 / 280
History coverage59d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $150 $183 +$33 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $130 $92 −$38 (-29%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 48¢ $100 $74 −$27 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $61 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $81 $61 −$20 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $103 $31 −$72 (-70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $33 $28 −$6 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $255 $25 −$230 (-90%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 5¢ 11¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+120%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-39%)
Epic Games IPO before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $26 $8 −$18 (-69%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-97%)
Will George Pickens play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $56 −$32 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $109 +$189 +173%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $195 +$24 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $47 +$7 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$99 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $70 +$5 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$15 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? Jun 17 $93 −$3 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $220 +$779 +354%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 16 $84 +$12 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$47 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $127 +$23 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$43 -82%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $61 −$59 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$143 +444%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $131 −$56 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 11 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$27 -52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $59 −$44 -75%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $70 +$68 +96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $186 +$14 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $83 +$17 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $46 +$14 +30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $28 +$50 +180%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elec Jun 08 $6 +$1 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $65 −$29 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $120 +$60 +50%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $168 +$32 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $91 −$5 -6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $95 −$3 -3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $44 −$33 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $141 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $136 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $56 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $66 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $73 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $298 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $104 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.45 · official $676.45 (match) · 966 history records