Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c14…41a8 crypto 50 markets active 4h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$291 (-0%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%48W / 2L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,772per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$414
7 days−$414
14 days−$397
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$105
world 43% −$397
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 80% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 91% 0% -9.9%
all 50 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$4,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$404 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses48 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage133d
Avg bet$3,772
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40,308 −$808 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $39,913 +$385 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $826 +$10 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $483 +$17 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19? May 19 $483 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 15? May 15 $458 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 14? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 30? May 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on April 30? May 09 $453 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 15? Apr 28 $501 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 2? Apr 13 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 8? Mar 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 8? Mar 06 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 7? Mar 06 $250 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 01 $8,727 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 27? Feb 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 27? Feb 28 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 27? Feb 28 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 27? Feb 28 $270 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on February 27? Feb 28 $280 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 27? Feb 28 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 26? Feb 27 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,834 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,293 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 25? Feb 26 $382 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 25? Feb 26 $649 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 24? Feb 25 $3,335 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,336 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 22 Feb 23 $3,247 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 22 Feb 23 $5,447 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 20? Feb 21 $8,686 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 18? Feb 19 $8,677 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 16? Feb 17 $3,706 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on February 16? Feb 17 $3,706 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Feb 15 $8,660 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 12 $4,017 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $735 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $3,900 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 9? Feb 10 $4,013 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 8? Feb 09 $489 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 7? Feb 09 $1,205 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 7? Feb 09 $2,936 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 8? Feb 07 $488 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 07 $3,653 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 8? Feb 06 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on February 8? Feb 06 $4,137 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $1,247 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 5? Feb 06 $7,379 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3,347 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15,684 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13,565 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6,885 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $40,230 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $64 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 7h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $835 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $826 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,947 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $479 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7,123 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $869 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8,033 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $116 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,391 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $312 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7,026 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2,964 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $21 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7,965 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $11 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2,239 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records