Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c17…38ef crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$40
other 30% −$62
crypto 21% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +5.8% -4.2% 59% 51% -11.2%
≤30d 41 +5.8% -4.2% 59% 51% -11.2%
≤90d 41 +5.8% -4.2% 59% 51% -11.2%
all 41 +5.8% -4.2% 59% 51% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 51% -11.2%
10% -13.4% 41% -19.7%
15% -21.8% 27% -27.5%
20% -29.4% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 +$55 +107%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$37 -71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$47 -92%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$23 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $155 −$17 -11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +30%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 −$52 -57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 −$69 -68%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $104 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$80 +78%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 −$40 -77%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$16 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$92 -89%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$17 -32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $29 +$171 +590%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $34 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 36m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $107 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $51 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $40 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.85 · official $11.85 (match) · 89 history records