Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2c19…e131 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,716 (-14%) realized −$4,123 · open −$1,593
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$739per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,549
7 days−$5,549
14 days−$5,549
30 days−$7,659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$2,216
world 34% −$1,314
politics 15% −$2,590
sports 4% −$270
culture 3% +$315
finance 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 27 -93.1% -93.8% 4% 4% -88.5%
≤90d 28 -78.9% -80.9% 7% 7% -62.3%
all 51 -40.2% -45.9% 22% 22% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 22% -20.9%
10% -51.1% 20% -28.5%
15% -55.8% 16% -35.4%
20% -60.2% 14% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,181 vs −$439 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$3,256
Realized−$4,123
Unrealized−$1,593
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage433d
Avg bet$739
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $2,500 $2,134 −$366 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $1,500 $880 −$620 (-41%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes 81¢ 70¢ $249 $216 −$33 (-13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 10¢ $100 $26 −$74 (-74%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 24? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before August? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 28 $669 −$669 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Los Angeles Lakers? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Houston Rockets? Jun 28 $140 −$140 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $600 +$511 +85%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 13 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $700 +$2,135 +305%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 08 $4,824 +$2,818 +58%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 02 $250 +$750 +300%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $4,249 +$692 +16%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 07 $2,277 +$1,971 +87%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 21 $200 +$1,251 +626%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Dec 20 $2,507 +$793 +32%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 26 $1,844 +$663 +36%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jul 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jul 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jul 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 01 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M? Jul 01 $1,185 +$315 +27%
All New Orleans escapees captured by Friday? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $580 −$580 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? May 14 $290 +$1,091 +376%
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the next Pope require 2 or fewer ballots? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election? May 09 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election? May 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $407 −$407 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,520 1h
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 52¢ $1,522 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $600 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 23¢ $500 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $100 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $500 62d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $500 62d
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $250 62d
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 24? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 68d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 75d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 78d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 36¢ $500 78d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 30¢ $500 82d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 83d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $500 83d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $500 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 85d
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,000 107d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $200 112d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $7,642 113d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,824 118d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $500 118d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $500 118d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,255.57 · official $3,255.57 (match) · 397 history records