Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2C 0x2c1a…5cb0 other 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,381 (+4%) realized +$6,302 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 180L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,404est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days−$15,583
14 days−$1,657
30 days−$8,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$8,051
other 32% −$5,260
world 4% +$2,146
crypto 1% +$706
culture 0% −$200
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -53.2% -57.6% 25% 23% -33.8%
≤30d 205 -29.5% -36.2% 33% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 230 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 39% -8.4%
all 307 -5.6% -14.5% 41% 39% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -6.4%
10% -22.7% 39% -15.4%
15% -30.2% 36% -23.6%
20% -37.0% 32% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$945) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$589 vs −$386 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$2,381
Realized+$6,302
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,404
Open positions5
Markets (closed)307 / 312
History coverage177d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,002 $986 −$16 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $1,000 $969 −$31 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $100 $237 +$137 (+137%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $508 +$578 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $1,002 +$1,328 +133%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $501 −$500 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $502 −$502 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $1,005 +$495 +49%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,002 +$788 +79%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $999 −$999 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,000 +$2,570 +257%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $999 +$851 +85%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,017 +$915 +45%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $514 +$586 +114%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,008 +$1,332 +132%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,006 +$1,554 +77%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,013 −$1,002 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $508 +$492 +97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $547 +$453 +83%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,882 +$78 +4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,002 +$588 +59%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $998 +$562 +56%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $510 +$490 +96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $570 −$570 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $82 −$80 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $657 −$650 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $999 +$1,221 +122%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $982 −$847 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $999 +$1,631 +163%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $528 −$528 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $497 +$213 +43%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,651 −$569 -34%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,002 +$66 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $103 13m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,022 14m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1,000 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $494 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $3 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $401 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $19 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $45 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $446 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $502 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $198 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $30 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $11 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $748 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,381.20 · official $2,381.20 (match) · 1693 history records