Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c1c…1221 crypto 1260 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,669 (-1%) realized −$1,669 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%1207W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$301
14 days−$694
30 days−$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,036
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -2.4% -11.7% 97% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 343 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 1260 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 6% -10.7%
all 1260 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -10.7%
10% -18.8% 2% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$135 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,669
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1207 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1260 / 1260
History coverage89d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1260 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $64 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $48 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $41 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $189 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$5 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $41 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $96 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $187 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$7 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $115 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $168 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $189 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $66 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.09 · official $0.00 · 2513 history records