Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c1e…a5c0
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$12 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage480d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $86 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 03 $1 $0 +7%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 02 $2 $0 -12%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April? Mar 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $22 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $3 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $20 +$6 +33%
Akron vs. Toledo Mar 04 $17 +$1 +5%
Viktoria Plzen vs. Ferencvaros Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$3
other 28% −$2
politics 11% $0
sports 9% +$10
weather 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $54 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $54 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $54 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $5 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $4 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $11 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $28 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 42h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $16 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $32 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? BUY No 97¢ $2 364d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $2 378d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 398d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 412d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.2% -3.9% 86% 29% -7.8%
≤30d 7 +6.2% -3.9% 86% 29% -7.8%
≤90d 7 +6.2% -3.9% 86% 29% -7.8%
all 40 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 10% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -8.1%
10% -20.7% 5% -16.9%
15% -28.4% 2% -24.9%
20% -35.4% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.43 · official $53.43 (match) · 117 history records