Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c24…59f5 crypto 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%132W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +5.7% -4.4% 61% 61% -5.8%
≤30d 259 -6.3% -15.3% 51% 47% -10.6%
≤90d 259 -6.3% -15.3% 51% 47% -10.6%
all 259 -6.3% -15.3% 51% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -10.6%
10% -23.4% 42% -19.2%
15% -30.8% 25% -27.0%
20% -37.6% 22% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses132 / 127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +224%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$6 +529%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $14 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $12 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 506 history records