Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c26…b9c9 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1
world 38% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 43 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage308d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $15 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $56 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $47 −$4 -8%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $40 +$2 +6%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 22 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $44 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $17 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $23 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $11 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $40 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $40 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records