Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c27…dee0 crypto 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,250 (-25%) realized −$2,250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%54W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days−$1,183
14 days−$622
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$957
other 22% −$1,024
sports 17% −$222
world 16% −$247
culture 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -77.3% -79.5% 9% 9% -52.8%
≤30d 60 -49.6% -54.4% 22% 22% -20.8%
≤90d 218 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 24% -34.3%
all 218 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 24% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 24% -34.3%
10% -49.1% 23% -40.6%
15% -54.0% 22% -46.4%
20% -58.5% 20% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$30 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses54 / 164
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage73d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 218 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$14 +130%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $50 −$39 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $222 +$82 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$208 +68%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $149 −$24 -16%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $50 +$100 +201%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$51 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $587 −$587 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $224 −$77 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $114 +$118 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$11 +34%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $260 −$39 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $380 +$471 +124%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $190 −$187 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $107 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $512 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $304 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $222 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $125 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $149 31h
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 54¢ $150 38h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $26 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 52¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records