Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c2b…e55d sports 435 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,492 (-5%) realized −$1,627 · open +$135
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%261W / 134L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$10,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$362
14 days−$1,540
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1,100
other 26% −$504
crypto 9% −$245
sports 9% +$93
tech 8% +$144
politics 5% +$6
finance 2% +$35
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$11
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.2% -16.1% 88% 6% -19.2%
≤30d 47 -8.2% -16.9% 87% 6% -17.2%
≤90d 395 -0.8% -10.2% 66% 39% -17.3%
all 395 -0.8% -10.2% 66% 39% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 39% -17.3%
10% -18.8% 28% -25.3%
15% -26.6% 23% -32.5%
20% -33.8% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$10,952
Realized−$1,627
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses261 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions40
Markets (closed)395 / 435
History coverage76d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,035 $1,081 +$47 (+5%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,078 $1,081 +$3 (+0%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 91¢ 94¢ $534 $552 +$18 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $500 $528 +$28 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 74¢ 79¢ $457 $485 +$28 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 83¢ $474 $413 −$61 (-13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $384 $386 +$2 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 90¢ 83¢ $370 $343 −$27 (-7%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 98¢ 99¢ $309 $311 +$2 (+1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $294 $297 +$3 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $288 $288 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $204 $204 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? No 79¢ 84¢ $166 $176 +$10 (+6%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $142 $146 +$3 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Iliman Ndiaye: 2+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $350 −$257 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $250 −$207 -83%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,001 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $276 +$95 +34%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $392 −$392 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $500 +$8 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $270 −$260 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $287 −$284 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$68 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $627 +$24 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 01 $198 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $436 +$41 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $220 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $185 +$6 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $501 +$17 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$45 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$16 +5%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $230 +$18 +8%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $501 +$12 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May Jun 01 $541 +$27 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May? May 31 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May? May 31 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 31 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 31 $160 +$8 +5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May? May 31 $422 +$59 +14%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May? May 31 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? May 31 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 31 $501 +$15 +3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $500 +$21 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $503 −$286 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $12 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $50 15h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $50 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Iliman Ndiaye: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $87 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $90 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $43 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $399 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $500 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $105 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 90¢ $246 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,952.38 · official $10,952.99 (match) · 1016 history records