Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c2f…4d6f crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$378 (-11%) realized −$193 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$354
14 days−$385
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$16
crypto 19% −$279
sports 11% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -4.2% -13.3% 24% 19% -24.1%
≤30d 64 -18.7% -26.5% 22% 19% -24.5%
≤90d 64 -18.7% -26.5% 22% 19% -24.5%
all 64 -18.7% -26.5% 22% 19% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 19% -24.5%
10% -33.5% 17% -31.7%
15% -39.9% 17% -38.3%
20% -45.8% 14% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 50
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)64 / 80
History coverage23d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $70 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $57 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 5¢ 14¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+158%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+150%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$95 +46%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $21 +$76 +367%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $154 −$137 -89%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +374%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $27 −$25 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -93%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +841%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +370%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Juninho Bacuna: 1+ assists Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$9 -59%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,040 −$77 -7%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $103 +$286 +277%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$18 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $11 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $11 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $11 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $32 54m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $22 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.32 · official $714.94 (match) · 172 history records