Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c2f…3943 crypto 1448 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$564 (-1%) realized −$722 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate79%1186W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$425
14 days−$471
30 days−$1,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 -14.4% -22.6% 61% 32% -11.3%
≤30d 570 -11.3% -19.8% 66% 27% -12.8%
≤90d 1041 -5.8% -14.7% 78% 22% -10.6%
all 1493 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 26% -10.5%
10% -20.5% 14% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 9% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$722
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1186 / 307
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1493 / 1448
History coverage272d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 10PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 10AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 4PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 11PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 4PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 11, 7PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 8PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 12AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 3PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 12AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on August 14 at 5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 11AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 11, 7PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 5AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 8AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,500 and $116,000 on Septembe Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 9PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$51 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $89 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records