Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c35…60e5 crypto 36 markets active 6d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-26%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$30
world 19% −$11
other 4% $0
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤30d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤90d 7 -76.0% -78.3% 0% 0% -56.2%
all 33 -47.8% -52.8% 24% 18% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 18% -43.6%
10% -57.3% 18% -49.0%
15% -61.4% 12% -53.9%
20% -65.2% 12% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage90d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 25 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 25 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 18 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 18 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 18 $2 +$6 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 17 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 17 $4 +$4 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $2 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 47¢ $8 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.72 · official $4.72 (match) · 66 history records