Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c36…b945 crypto 1108 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$192 (-4%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%557W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$178
14 days−$176
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 49% -21.7%
≤30d 1057 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 53% -10.4%
≤90d 1057 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 53% -10.4%
all 1057 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 53% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 53% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 53% -19.0%
15% -25.5% 53% -26.8%
20% -32.8% 52% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses557 / 500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1057 / 1108
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1057 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$24 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$11 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1737 history records