Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c39…5f57 sports 77 markets active 3d ago coverage 760d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+3%) realized +$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$42
14 days+$233
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$321
other 30% −$84
crypto 24% −$352
sports 14% +$267
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +10.7% +0.1% 61% 61% -3.4%
≤30d 44 +15.6% +4.6% 61% 59% +8.0%
≤90d 44 +15.6% +4.6% 61% 59% +8.0%
all 77 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 47% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 47% -7.8%
10% -13.6% 42% -16.7%
15% -22.0% 36% -24.7%
20% -29.6% 31% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

760d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 36
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage760d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$35 +172%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$35 +172%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$28 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$30 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$69 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$66 +324%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 12 $58 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 06 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $29 +$14 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $20 +$11 +56%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 20 $43 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $20 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records