Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c3c…4683 crypto 1099 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,722 (-18%) realized −$1,727 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%480W / 618L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day78.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$261
14 days−$177
30 days−$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$824
other 4% −$82
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -19.7% -27.3% 10% 10% -30.4%
≤30d 994 -12.3% -20.6% 45% 31% -20.6%
≤90d 1098 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 31% -22.0%
all 1098 -13.1% -21.4% 44% 31% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 31% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 20% -29.4%
15% -35.8% 16% -36.3%
20% -42.1% 13% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,727
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses480 / 618
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1098 / 1099
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 11¢ 24¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$42 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $35.75 · 3500 history records