Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c3c…113a crypto 992 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$180 (-5%) realized −$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%502W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day156.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$245
14 days−$243
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 832 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 47% -16.0%
≤30d 992 -12.2% -20.5% 51% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 992 -12.2% -20.5% 51% 46% -15.3%
all 992 -12.2% -20.5% 51% 46% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 46% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 42% -23.4%
15% -35.1% 36% -30.8%
20% -41.4% 30% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses502 / 490
Open positions0
Markets (closed)992 / 992
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day156.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 992 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1720 history records