Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c3d…d1b2
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$32
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 45¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 11¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 28¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $33 −$14 -41%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $40 −$8 -21%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 +$5 +14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $34 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $30 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% −$28
crypto 25% −$50
other 21% −$3
world 18% +$1
finance 9% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $33 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -48.7% -53.6% 38% 19% -36.7%
≤30d 21 -48.7% -53.6% 38% 19% -36.7%
≤90d 21 -48.7% -53.6% 38% 19% -36.7%
all 21 -48.7% -53.6% 38% 19% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 19% -36.7%
10% -58.0% 10% -42.8%
15% -62.1% 5% -48.3%
20% -65.8% 0% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.34 · official $32.34 (match) · 49 history records