trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 62¢ | 62¢ | $33 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | Up | 45¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Down | 11¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | Up | 9¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | Up | 38¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | Down | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Up | 28¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET | Down | 38¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | Jun 14 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Jun 14 | $12 | −$4 | -36% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Jun 14 | $13 | +$3 | +24% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Jun 14 | $6 | −$6 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | Jun 14 | $16 | −$15 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | Jun 14 | $3 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? | Jun 14 | $33 | −$14 | -41% |
| Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou | Jun 10 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut | Jun 10 | $40 | −$8 | -21% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $35 | +$5 | +14% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Jun 08 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Jun 07 | $30 | +$2 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 38% | 19% | -36.7% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 38% | 19% | -36.7% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 38% | 19% | -36.7% |
| all | 21 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 38% | 19% | -36.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -53.6% | 19% | -36.7% |
| 10% | -58.0% | 10% | -42.8% |
| 15% | -62.1% | 5% | -48.3% |
| 20% | -65.8% | 0% | -53.4% |