Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c3d…0b5a crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$505 (-4%) realized −$505 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$53
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$818
sports 23% +$242
other 10% −$61
crypto 7% +$36
tech 7% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 25% -6.5%
≤30d 50 -12.9% -21.2% 70% 30% -13.1%
≤90d 50 -12.9% -21.2% 70% 30% -13.1%
all 50 -12.9% -21.2% 70% 30% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 30% -13.1%
10% -28.8% 18% -21.4%
15% -35.6% 4% -29.0%
20% -41.9% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$105 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage452d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $24 −$13 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $243 −$240 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $73 −$16 -21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $823 +$226 +28%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $444 +$32 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $571 +$45 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $538 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $476 +$24 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $563 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $671 +$55 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $162 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $114 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $215 +$70 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$5 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $111 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $6,022 +$262 +4%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Jun 03 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $863 −$722 -84%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $40 −$13 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $213 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 94¢ $200 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 64¢ $56 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes $4 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes $0 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 8d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 75¢ $34 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $929 8d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $476 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $27 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $64 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $284 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 510 history records