Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c3d…d3e9 weather 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$407 (-2%) realized −$259 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%203W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$473
14 days−$121
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$621
politics 3% −$19
world 3% +$109
other 2% −$5
sports 1% −$8
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.9% -15.7% 67% 40% -16.3%
≤30d 275 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 29% -10.4%
≤90d 594 -18.1% -25.9% 34% 26% -11.7%
all 594 -18.1% -25.9% 34% 26% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 26% -11.7%
10% -33.0% 20% -20.2%
15% -39.5% 14% -27.9%
20% -45.4% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses203 / 391
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)594 / 598
History coverage86d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 77¢ 75¢ $109 $105 −$4 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? No 89¢ 74¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? No 76¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? No 82¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$28 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$59 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$56 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$88 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $272 +$40 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$19 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $203 +$69 +34%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $301 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $181 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $302 +$38 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $203 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $70 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $226 +$41 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $301 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 −$78 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$13 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $110 47m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $105 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $121 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $45 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $229 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $43 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $201 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $161 39h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $157 44h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 10¢ $13 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $312 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $71 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $163 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.47 · official $130.47 (match) · 1514 history records