trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 100% | 12% | -4.1% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 54% | 27% | -5.2% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 54% | 27% | -5.2% |
| all | 26 | -31.4% | -37.9% | 54% | 27% | -5.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.9% | 27% | -5.2% |
| 10% | -43.9% | 19% | -14.2% |
| 15% | -49.3% | 8% | -22.5% |
| 20% | -54.3% | 4% | -30.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $27 | $24 | −$3 (-10%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $40 | +$1 | +3% |
| Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? | Jun 22 | $38 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $30 | +$10 | +33% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $60 | +$2 | +3% |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Jun 20 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? | Jun 19 | $50 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $58 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $60 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $50 | +$10 | +21% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $3 | −$2 | -62% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $17 | +$3 | +16% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $12 | +$4 | +32% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Jun 16 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? | Jun 16 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $6 | −$5 | -93% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $3 | −$2 | -48% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $35 | +$14 | +41% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +57% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $21 | +$7 | +34% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$7 | -72% |