Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2C 0x2c41…133e politics 505 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 289d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$56,347 (+25%) realized +$45,753 · open +$10,594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%220W / 246L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,523
7 days−$3,028
14 days−$3,201
30 days+$1,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$16,650
other 31% +$18,819
politics 21% +$4,172
sports 4% +$4,932
culture 2% +$210
economics 2% −$2,132
tech 0% −$26
crypto 0% −$117
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -70.4% -73.2% 22% 22% -55.1%
≤30d 59 +45.6% +31.7% 41% 36% -3.9%
≤90d 163 +22.6% +10.9% 52% 45% +0.3%
all 466 +15.5% +4.5% 47% 40% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 40% +2.3%
10% -5.5% 30% -7.5%
15% -14.6% 24% -16.4%
20% -23.0% 19% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$191 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$48,486
Realized+$45,753
Unrealized+$10,594
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses220 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions67
Markets (closed)466 / 505
History coverage290d ⚠
Avg bet$450
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 56¢ 97¢ $16,100 $27,737 +$11,636 (+72%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 55¢ $9,865 $8,874 −$990 (-10%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,802 $2,811 +$9 (+0%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $1,851 $2,352 +$501 (+27%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 51¢ 58¢ $794 $904 +$110 (+14%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 68¢ 63¢ $631 $582 −$50 (-8%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 63¢ 77¢ $463 $570 +$107 (+23%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No 64¢ 98¢ $241 $370 +$129 (+53%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 73¢ 51¢ $434 $305 −$129 (-30%)
Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? No 86¢ 92¢ $257 $278 +$20 (+8%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 21¢ 57¢ $92 $253 +$161 (+176%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? No 25¢ 41¢ $138 $229 +$90 (+65%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No 91¢ 93¢ $214 $220 +$6 (+3%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $235 $209 −$26 (-11%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $210 $187 −$23 (-11%)
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $68 $144 +$76 (+111%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle? No 87¢ 97¢ $128 $143 +$15 (+12%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $295 $142 −$153 (-52%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 25¢ 56¢ $59 $134 +$75 (+128%)
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09? No 86¢ 90¢ $120 $127 +$6 (+5%)
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $151 $126 −$25 (-17%)
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Yes 25¢ 56¢ $54 $121 +$67 (+126%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 70¢ 56¢ $146 $116 −$30 (-21%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 35¢ 19¢ $207 $113 −$94 (-45%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $94 $105 +$11 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? Jun 23 $206 −$212 -102%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Jun 23 $932 −$932 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July? Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Trump x Elon talk before August? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in July? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Jun 23 $52 −$57 -110%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Jun 23 $142 −$92 -65%
Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in September? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump attend the US Open Finals? Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? Jun 23 $535 −$563 -105%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Pope Leo visit Turkey first? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral? Jun 23 $10 −$178 -1838%
Will Trump attend UFC 319? Jun 23 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams? Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump x Putin talk by July 31? Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Will MrBeast's TeamWater livestream last less than 6 hours? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Purple Heart ceremony Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? Jun 23 $165 −$141 -85%
Will the US add more than 200k jobs in August? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July? Jun 23 $115 −$124 -108%
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -99%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? Jun 23 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 23 $127 +$60 +47%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $34 +$8 +22%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $470 +$92 +20%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $456 +$165 +36%
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? Jun 17 $39 +$6 +15%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $348 +$113 +32%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 16 $638 +$111 +17%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $74 +$25 +34%
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $14 +$6 +38%
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? Jun 09 $60 +$196 +327%
Will John Rodgers win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary ele Jun 09 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? Jun 09 $133 +$15 +11%
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 09 $55 +$19 +35%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 09 $132 +$433 +328%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 09 $231 +$171 +74%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $4,654 +$302 +6%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun May 30 $3 +$7 +230%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 30 $1 +$16 +1067%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 May 30 $555 −$547 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 28 $1,126 +$117 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY No 91¢ $446 1h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY No 91¢ $137 1h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 100¢ $120 11h
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim SELL No 100¢ $32 11h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY No 90¢ $994 11h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 13h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 24¢ $59 13h
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio BUY No 90¢ $1,236 13h
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 46¢ $29 24h
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election SELL No 100¢ $107 6d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $303 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $154 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $186 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $135 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $245 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $360 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $18 8d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 60¢ $93 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $274 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $172 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $104 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $200 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $24 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $122 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $84 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $4,156 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,485.63 · official $48,508.00 (match) · 3500 history records