Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2c42…a094 sports 218 markets active 3d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-3%) realized −$89 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%118W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$99
14 days−$50
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$58
other 9% −$67
crypto 6% +$21
world 3% −$4
tech 2% +$14
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -34.6% -40.8% 38% 31% -52.4%
≤30d 38 +0.7% -8.9% 66% 45% -20.0%
≤90d 135 +8.7% -1.7% 60% 48% -10.1%
all 208 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 48% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 48% -12.8%
10% -16.5% 46% -21.1%
15% -24.6% 44% -28.7%
20% -32.0% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses118 / 90
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)208 / 218
History coverage151d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 82¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+68%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$21 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $20 +$34 +165%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $7 +$5 +73%
ITF Lakewood: Theodore Dean vs Iiro Vasa Jun 02 $9 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Little Rock: Justin Boulais vs Nicolas Mejia May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 28 $20 +$26 +129%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $16 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 18d
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 70¢ $10 24d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $10 24d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 47¢ $20 24d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $20 24d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $20 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 24d
ITF Lakewood: Theodore Dean vs Iiro Vasa BUY Theodore Dean 51¢ $9 30d
Little Rock: Justin Boulais vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 69¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.74 · official $82.74 (match) · 364 history records