Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c42…00ad
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$175 -71%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$174 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage1278d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Italy win? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the match be a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
World Cup Final: France vs. Argentina Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the match be a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. France - Who will advance? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Slovakia - who will advance? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland Jun 14 $1 +$29 +2222%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $5 +$16 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 28 $13 +$4 +30%
World Cup: Tuesday - Argentina vs. Croatia Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
World Cup 3rd Place: Croatia vs. Morocco Dec 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$85
tech 22% −$54
crypto 15% −$21
politics 10% −$24
other 5% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Australia win on 2026- BUY 6¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland SELL 98¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $2 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland BUY 4¢ $1 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 3¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 BUY 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 46d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 46d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 51d
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? BUY No 4¢ $24 303d
Portugal vs. France - Who will advance? BUY Portugal 43¢ $9 708d
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? BUY Germany 44¢ $1 708d
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? BUY Germany 55¢ $12 708d
England vs. Slovakia - who will advance? BUY Slovakia 8¢ $0 713d
Will the match be a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 713d
England vs. Slovakia - who will advance? BUY Slovakia 16¢ $7 713d
Will the match be a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 714d
Will the match be a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 714d
Will Italy win? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 714d
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? BUY No 18¢ $1 885d
World Cup Final: France vs. Argentina BUY France 47¢ $58 1273d
World Cup 3rd Place: Croatia vs. Morocco BUY Croatia 58¢ $16 1275d
World Cup 3rd Place: Croatia vs. Morocco BUY Croatia 58¢ $9 1275d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +81.7% +64.4% 14% 14% -78.7%
≤30d 14 +81.7% +64.4% 14% 14% -78.7%
≤90d 15 +78.2% +61.3% 20% 20% -72.9%
all 17 +57.3% +42.3% 18% 18% -75.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.3% 18% -75.9%
10% +28.7% 18% -78.2%
15% +16.2% 12% -80.3%
20% +4.8% 12% -82.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $2.85 · 67 history records