Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c43…079b
world · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage298d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 08 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $4 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$4
other 27% $0
politics 14% −$2
crypto 8% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $5 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $27 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $17 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $11 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $21 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $21 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $46 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.0% -2.2% 80% 20% -5.9%
≤30d 9 +3.8% -6.1% 67% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 9 +3.8% -6.1% 67% 11% -7.4%
all 35 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.0%
10% -21.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -28.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.40 · official $49.40 (match) · 125 history records