Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c48…59a4 other 10 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% $0
sports 23% −$1
world 21% +$1
weather 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 8 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤90d 8 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -5.2%
all 8 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 50% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 50% -5.2%
10% -40.7% 25% -14.3%
15% -46.4% 25% -22.6%
20% -51.7% 25% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 78¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $3 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 72¢ $9 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $4 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $3 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.93 (match) · 17 history records