Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c48…f6f6 crypto 223 markets active 4d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$672 (-11%) realized −$672 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%87W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$236
14 days−$925
30 days−$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$916
sports 36% −$122
finance 1% +$16
other 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -28.0% -34.8% 31% 31% -33.9%
≤30d 222 -10.4% -18.9% 39% 38% -26.5%
≤90d 223 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 38% -26.5%
all 223 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 38% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -26.5%
10% -27.0% 36% -33.6%
15% -34.1% 35% -40.0%
20% -40.5% 34% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$672
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses87 / 136
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage31d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$13 +229%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $26 −$14 -53%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $76 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +116%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $71 −$62 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +92%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $36 −$3 -9%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $34 +$102 +303%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $31 −$26 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $31 −$18 -58%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $61 +$50 +82%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $37 −$36 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $74 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $12 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 28¢ $19 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 91¢ $19 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $6 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 17¢ $6 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 15¢ $8 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 0¢ $0 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 15¢ $4 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 7¢ $4 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 26¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 8¢ $8 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 17¢ $18 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 19¢ $19 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 25¢ $27 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 32¢ $14 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 34¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records