Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2c4a…8e5d sports 1501 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,041 (+27%) realized +$18,029 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%849W / 626L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,253
sports 49% +$2,719
world 1% +$188
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 52% -9.6%
≤30d 316 +5.4% -4.6% 54% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 1260 +7.0% -3.2% 58% 56% -7.7%
all 1475 +7.4% -2.8% 58% 56% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 56% -3.9%
10% -12.1% 54% -13.1%
15% -20.6% 48% -21.5%
20% -28.4% 40% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$18,029
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses849 / 626
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1475 / 1501
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 72¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 69¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 300 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$9 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$31 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$30 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $43 +$17 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$14 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $48 +$12 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$14 -28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$38 +170%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$31 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 +$11 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 +$16 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$37 +163%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 +$22 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $90 −$30 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$54 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 +$20 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $28 +$32 +113%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$46 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$12 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 +$16 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 +$33 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $57 +$21 +36%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$19 +45%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $47 +$13 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$34 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$19 +47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$30 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$21 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $26 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $50 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $38 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $4 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $30 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $35 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $28 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $48 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $27 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $18 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $32 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $15 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $22 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $25 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $26 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $2 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 44h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $24 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.93 · official $247.08 (match) · 3500 history records