Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c4c…7a24 sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-14%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%49W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$19
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$143
other 16% +$11
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.3% -5.7% 56% 56% +7.7%
≤30d 37 +37.7% +24.6% 65% 65% +24.9%
≤90d 37 +37.7% +24.6% 65% 65% +24.9%
all 91 +5.7% -4.3% 54% 49% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 49% -20.6%
10% -13.5% 42% -28.2%
15% -21.8% 37% -35.2%
20% -29.5% 32% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses49 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 109
History coverage125d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 +$6 +197%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $3 +$5 +165%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: S Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$6 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +123%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +249%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $43 −$34 -78%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 07 $36 +$2 +6%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Mar 05 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Mar 05 $3 +$4 +117%
Spread: Wizards (-3.5) Mar 05 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 05 $3 $0 +11%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $12 −$9 -73%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $29 −$13 -44%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $8 +$4 +47%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $3 55m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Te BUY 32¢ $3 59m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $7 16h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND BUY 25¢ $3 16h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 35h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $3 40h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 41h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $20 42h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $17 44h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portuga BUY 31¢ $3 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Will Norway win on 2026 BUY 45¢ $3 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: S BUY 52¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $3 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 10¢ $3 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $12 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Ecu BUY 26¢ $3 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaça BUY 23¢ $3 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $19.91 · 198 history records