Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c4c…3f12 sports 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-5%) realized −$79 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%280W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$18
14 days−$8
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$90
other 12% −$16
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +18.0% +6.8% 52% 52% -1.5%
≤30d 609 -5.2% -14.3% 46% 41% -15.4%
≤90d 609 -5.2% -14.3% 46% 41% -15.4%
all 609 -5.2% -14.3% 46% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 41% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -23.5%
15% -30.0% 27% -30.9%
20% -36.8% 21% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses280 / 329
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions44
Markets (closed)609 / 653
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Julia Riera 66¢ 97¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Remy Bertola 53¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+87%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Fiona Ferro 91¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Toronto Tempo 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 67¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 +$9 +874%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $3 +$2 +80%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $3 −$1 -34%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2 +$3 +131%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Liv Boulard Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $3 +$4 +115%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $3 +$4 +119%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $4 −$2 -60%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $1 +$4 +365%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 24¢ $1 1m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $1 3m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $1 3m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 20¢ $1 5m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 36¢ $1 9m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 91¢ $1 15m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 92¢ $1 15m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 58¢ $1 15m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 71¢ $1 17m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 56¢ $1 17m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 56¢ $1 17m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 50¢ $1 17m
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 58¢ $1 17m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $1 18m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 18¢ $1 27m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 18¢ $1 27m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 18¢ $1 27m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 66¢ $1 27m
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Ivan Ivanov 15¢ $1 31m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 52¢ $1 31m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom SELL Titouan Droguet 58¢ $1 31m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Jaime Faria 42¢ $1 31m
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 28¢ $1 35m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 57¢ $1 35m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 53¢ $1 35m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 36¢ $1 35m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech $1 35m
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 54¢ $1 36m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 57m
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 33¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.85 · official $61.87 (match) · 1652 history records