Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c52…cdad crypto 2020 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$227 (+1%) realized +$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%1389W / 908L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$593
other 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 734 -44.7% -49.9% 54% 2% -16.3%
≤30d 797 -35.7% -41.8% 55% 7% -16.1%
≤90d 2297 -14.1% -22.3% 60% 38% -15.6%
all 2297 -14.1% -22.3% 60% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 38% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 35% -23.7%
15% -36.5% 30% -31.0%
20% -42.7% 26% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1389 / 908
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2297 / 2020
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2297 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $94 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records