Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c53…32f6
world · 33 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$15 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 42¢ 74¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 33¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 81¢ 53¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 −$4 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump visit Los Angeles by Friday? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $18 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 23 $20 $0 -1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his pre Mar 21 $16 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$2
other 19% +$16
sports 12% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% −$2
weather 3% $0
tech 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $27 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $33 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $1 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $34 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $18 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $7 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $13 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $14 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $6 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $19 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 0% -11.0%
all 29 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 10% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -6.4%
10% -20.7% 7% -15.3%
15% -28.3% 3% -23.5%
20% -35.4% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.88 · official $32.97 (match) · 115 history records