Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c56…978f crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+6%) realized +$97 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$120
14 days+$247
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$331
sports 29% +$570
other 4% −$87
tech 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +33.8%
≤30d 2 +142.8% +119.7% 100% 100% +64.2%
≤90d 9 +73.2% +56.7% 56% 56% +75.6%
all 46 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 46% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 46% -4.9%
10% -26.3% 39% -14.0%
15% -33.4% 37% -22.3%
20% -39.9% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage207d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $104 $181 +$77 (+74%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $250 +$120 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $54 +$128 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 01 $25 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 01 $5 +$21 +392%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 20 $77 +$149 +194%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $111 +$137 +124%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Nov 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Nov 27 $18 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 27 $25 +$14 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 27 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 27 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Nov 26 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Nov 26 $86 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Nov 26 $149 −$108 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 26 $128 +$24 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 26 $91 +$37 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 26 $44 +$22 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 26 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 26 $55 +$40 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 26 $58 +$42 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 26 $80 +$38 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 26 $25 +$14 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? Nov 26 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? Nov 26 $6 −$4 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $50 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $210 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $127 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 39¢ $27 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 14¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 34¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 22¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 64¢ $114 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $100 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $19 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $34 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $16 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $26 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 50d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 62d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $20 62d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 62d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $27 62d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $248 62d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 37¢ $56 62d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 53¢ $55 62d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 4¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.59 · official $181.59 (match) · 147 history records