Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c56…ab7c crypto 1734 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$423 (+1%) realized +$417 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate88%1523W / 210L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$26
14 days+$49
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 466 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 16% -9.0%
≤90d 1733 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 13% -9.2%
all 1733 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 13% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1523 / 210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1733 / 1734
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$13 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$21 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $38 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $38 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 3500 history records