Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c57…372d weather 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (364 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,774 (+109%) realized +$10,387 · open +$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%39W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day363.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,709now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$912
sports 4% −$80
other 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (364 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-65.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -65.3% -68.6% 11% 11% -46.0%
≤30d 318 -62.3% -65.9% 12% 12% -41.1%
≤90d 318 -62.3% -65.9% 12% 12% -41.1%
all 318 -62.3% -65.9% 12% 12% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover363.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.9% 12% -41.1%
10% ← realistic here -69.1% 11% -46.7%
15% -72.1% 9% -51.9%
20% -74.9% 8% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$44 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,709
Realized+$10,387
Unrealized+$387
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses39 / 279
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions29
Markets (closed)318 / 172
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day363.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 96¢ $196 $1,022 +$826 (+421%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $194 $148 −$45 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $116 $125 +$8 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $71 $106 +$35 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $28 $55 +$27 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $54 $27 −$27 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $5 $14 +$8 (+155%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $110 $9 −$101 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+164%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+195%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 252 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Jun 17 $35 −$38 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Jun 17 $295 −$380 -129%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3? Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 7? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 10? Jun 17 $10 −$52 -517%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 17 $12 −$41 -348%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 29? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 1? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on May 31? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 5? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1251%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$22 -443%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$6 -410%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 14? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 −$68 -19513%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? Jun 17 $326 −$328 -101%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on May 30? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 17 $137 −$153 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 31? Jun 17 $50 −$85 -170%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 17 $40 −$53 -134%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 20? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 13? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30? Jun 17 $11 −$16 -139%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 6? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 14? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22? Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C or higher on May 13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2? Jun 17 $20 −$65 -321%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,709.10 · official $1,716.32 (match) · 3500 history records