Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c5b…b82b sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,395 (+5%) realized +$2,205 · open +$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%31W / 15L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$388est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,055
7 days+$1,792
14 days+$2,149
30 days+$2,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,348
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 60% -4.9%
≤30d 46 -5.7% -14.7% 67% 59% -4.4%
≤90d 46 -5.7% -14.7% 67% 59% -4.4%
all 46 -5.7% -14.7% 67% 59% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 59% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 48% -13.6%
15% -30.3% 35% -21.9%
20% -37.1% 20% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$902) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$604 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$7,452
Realized+$2,205
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses31 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$388
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage12d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $6,963 $6,916 −$46 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 54¢ 96¢ $300 $536 +$236 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $4,746 +$2,508 +53%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $3,048 +$1,766 +58%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $1,553 +$1,496 +96%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $576 −$570 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3,406 +$186 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $2,297 +$1,169 +51%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $671 −$663 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2,299 +$771 +34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $3,533 −$3,508 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $947 +$319 +34%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $529 −$520 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $304 −$262 -86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $502 +$91 +18%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $803 +$121 +15%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $902 +$85 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $506 −$378 -75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $506 +$314 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $505 +$241 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $803 +$108 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $251 +$54 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 +$139 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $501 +$48 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $915 +$349 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $799 +$117 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $563 +$233 +41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $182 −$179 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 +$108 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $483 +$147 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $337 +$152 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $100 +$38 +38%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $152 +$113 +74%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $727 +$260 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$9 -86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $154 +$52 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $111 +$44 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$75 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $469 +$44 +10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $201 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$12 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $7,015 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $304 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $7,254 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $2,213 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $2,534 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $4,814 11h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 63¢ $3,048 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $3,050 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $1,553 29h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $508 32h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $1,015 33h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $71 34h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 70¢ $505 35h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $3,591 35h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $3,406 37h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $3,467 37h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $2,297 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 60¢ $671 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $3,070 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 74¢ $2,299 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 59¢ $569 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $571 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $1,187 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 82¢ $1,206 2d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close SELL Game Master 100¢ $1,267 2d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 74¢ $665 2d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 74¢ $282 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 42¢ $529 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 8¢ $42 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $303 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,452.21 · official $7,452.21 (match) · 100 history records