Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c5e…ffb9 crypto 684 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$656 (-6%) realized −$656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%310W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$275
14 days−$346
30 days−$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$639
world 10% +$219
politics 4% −$134
other 3% −$140
weather 2% −$70
economics 1% −$30
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +2.4% -7.4% 53% 53% -19.2%
≤30d 607 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 45% -16.1%
≤90d 631 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 44% -17.2%
all 683 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 42% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 42% -16.7%
10% -26.0% 40% -24.7%
15% -33.1% 35% -32.0%
20% -39.7% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses310 / 373
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 684
History coverage589d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (331 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$37 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$14 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 1483 history records