Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2c62…9ba2 other 20 markets active 21h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-5%) realized −$201 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$202
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$4
crypto 18% −$317
sports 3% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -27.5% -34.4% 50% 30% -28.0%
≤30d 11 -24.9% -32.0% 55% 27% -25.5%
≤90d 13 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 31% -25.2%
all 13 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 31% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 31% -25.2%
10% -35.6% 23% -32.4%
15% -41.8% 15% -38.9%
20% -47.5% 15% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$74 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$2,051
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage69d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $432 $527 +$95 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $467 $366 −$101 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $303 $337 +$34 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $239 $316 +$77 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $185 $191 +$6 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $231 $160 −$71 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $142 $154 +$12 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$21 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$17 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $130 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $142 68d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $185 68d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $231 68d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $239 68d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $303 68d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $432 68d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $467 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,050.97 · official $2,051.24 (match) · 111 history records