Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c64…2099 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44,649 (-52%) realized −$27,476 · open −$17,173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,620per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$17,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$21,010
sports 11% −$8,154
politics 3% −$680
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -74.6% -77.0% 0% 0% -86.4%
all 7 -47.9% -52.8% 14% 14% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.8% 14% -49.2%
10% ← realistic here -57.4% 14% -54.1%
15% -61.5% 14% -58.5%
20% -65.3% 14% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$2,150 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$17,121
Realized−$27,476
Unrealized−$17,173
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage371d
Avg bet$6,620
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $31,048 $14,556 −$16,492 (-53%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,000 $793 −$206 (-21%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $731 $733 +$3 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $500 $41 −$459 (-92%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 11 $2,000 −$474 -24%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 09 $7,136 −$7,136 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $150 −$67 -45%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jul 25 $18,193 −$4,220 -23%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 25 $400 +$226 +56%
US recession in 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $240 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $501 15h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 15h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $466 44d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 61d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 20¢ $1,000 63d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL No 22¢ $1,526 72d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $7,136 73d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY No 34¢ $139 73d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY No 29¢ $1,861 73d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,000 110d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $671 144d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,000 145d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $300 147d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5,000 147d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 148d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $8,001 158d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $5,000 170d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5,000 171d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 246d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $4,000 247d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,000 292d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $5,000 292d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,520 308d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,528 311d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $83 311d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $720 313d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,050 331d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,051 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,120.97 · official $17,120.97 (match) · 466 history records