Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c69…497a crypto 611 markets active 6d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$720 (-8%) realized −$720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%362W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$246
14 days−$246
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$786
sports 3% −$93
other 2% −$31
world 1% −$4
finance 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 38% -14.9%
≤30d 339 +2.4% -7.4% 45% 38% -14.8%
≤90d 611 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 32% -18.1%
all 611 -1.0% -10.4% 59% 32% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 32% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 22% -25.9%
15% -26.8% 16% -33.1%
20% -34.0% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses362 / 249
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)611 / 611
History coverage62d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 611 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$2 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$13 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3180 history records