Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c69…22f9 weather 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-6%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$26
14 days+$25
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$45
sports 15% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +170.0% +144.3% 47% 47% +147.7%
≤30d 83 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 29% -13.3%
≤90d 86 +6.5% -3.7% 28% 28% -16.6%
all 86 +6.5% -3.7% 28% 28% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 28% -16.6%
10% -12.9% 28% -24.6%
15% -21.3% 28% -31.9%
20% -29.0% 28% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1331%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 03 $2 +$4 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$4 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 31 $3 +$8 +250%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 31 $2 +$3 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 29 $3 +$8 +248%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or below on May 31? May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 80°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $3 +$6 +193%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May May 29 $3 +$7 +237%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 28 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on May 30? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or below on May 30? May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.59 · official $23.59 (match) · 151 history records