Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c6a…d2fa sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+6%) realized +$54 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$47
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.2% -21.5% 64% 29% -2.6%
≤30d 15 -12.1% -20.5% 67% 27% -2.6%
≤90d 15 -12.1% -20.5% 67% 27% -2.6%
all 15 -12.1% -20.5% 67% 27% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -2.6%
10% -28.1% 20% -11.9%
15% -35.0% 13% -20.4%
20% -41.4% 13% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.54 per $1 lost it wins $11.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 92¢ $148 $144 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $139 +$9 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $129 +$10 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U Jun 19 $0 $0 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +110%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $119 +$10 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $104 +$8 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.00 · official $145.55 · 29 history records