Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c6b…3f80
crypto · 612 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$72 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses366 / 244
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)610 / 612
History coverage226d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 610 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+55%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 08 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 02 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 02 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 02 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 02 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 02 $4 −$3 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$34
finance 2% −$44
sports 0% +$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 49% -5.6%
≤30d 35 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 49% -5.6%
≤90d 272 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 49% -12.3%
all 610 -0.9% -10.4% 60% 41% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 41% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 27% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 13% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 2465 history records