Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c6c…56a7 crypto 1006 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-2%) realized −$368 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%805W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day132.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$805
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -85.8% -87.1% 13% 3% -92.4%
≤30d 1305 -25.0% -32.1% 62% 30% -41.8%
≤90d 1305 -25.0% -32.1% 62% 30% -41.8%
all 1305 -25.0% -32.1% 62% 30% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.1% 30% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 17% -47.3%
15% -44.5% 10% -52.4%
20% -50.0% 7% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$368
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses805 / 500
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1305 / 1006
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day132.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.89 · official $45.04 · 3500 history records