Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2c6c…057d
world · 106 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$110 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open +$115
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$284
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage101d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$6
14 days+$23
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 11¢ 25¢ $73 $161 +$88 (+121%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+27%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$13 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 −$6 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $45 +$8 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $54 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $45 +$10 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $150 −$1 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $132 −$92 -70%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $120 −$59 -49%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $65 +$51 +79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$32 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$24 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 +$41 +82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $104 +$138 +132%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 07 $12 −$10 -82%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +8%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $11 +$3 +25%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $24 +$28 +117%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $19 −$13 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $20 −$9 -46%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $4 +$1 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 24 $21 +$5 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $14 +$7 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $19 −$8 -42%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 23 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $19 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 12 $35 −$5 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $8 +$4 +44%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $9 +$8 +90%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $14 +$10 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% +$106
other 7% +$27
finance 3% −$7
politics 2% +$12
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 24m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $35 25m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 48m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 49m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $52 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $53 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $48 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 73¢ $55 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $45 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $45 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $19 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $29 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 19% -9.9%
≤30d 43 +5.5% -4.5% 51% 33% -8.4%
≤90d 76 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 32% -8.4%
all 102 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 33% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 33% -8.6%
10% -19.3% 26% -17.3%
15% -27.1% 17% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.60 · official $283.60 (match) · 291 history records