Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c6f…5daa sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-42%) realized −$204 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$179
other 13% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 25% -51.4%
≤30d 8 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 25% -51.4%
≤90d 8 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 25% -51.4%
all 8 -54.4% -58.8% 25% 25% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 25% -51.4%
10% -62.7% 12% -56.0%
15% -66.3% 0% -60.3%
20% -69.6% 0% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$37 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$52 -64%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$14 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $70 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 18¢ $30 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $81 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $94 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 84¢ $80 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.22 · official $53.22 (match) · 13 history records