Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c75…fd50 crypto 944 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$943 (-10%) realized −$923 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate78%736W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$123
14 days−$296
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$104
other 42% −$95
sports 7% −$56
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -17.2% -25.0% 34% 31% -18.1%
≤30d 254 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 943 -0.1% -9.6% 78% 26% -11.9%
all 943 -0.1% -9.6% 78% 26% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 26% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 15% -20.3%
15% -26.2% 7% -28.0%
20% -33.4% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$923
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses736 / 207
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)943 / 944
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 943 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $54 $33 −$20 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$17 -85100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $1 −$1 -73%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $5 −$3 -67%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $5 +$11 +207%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -72%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $56 −$18 -32%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -87%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $12 +$4 +30%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $113 −$47 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$11 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $271 −$47 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $291 −$53 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$75 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $72 −$11 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$8 -19%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $37 −$10 -28%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $27 −$13 -47%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $23 +$7 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $23 −$2 -8%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$7 +58%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $1 −$1 -56%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $7 +$1 +21%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $2 −$1 -51%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $56 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $8 3h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 3¢ $0 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 62¢ $5 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 55¢ $5 4h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 60¢ $5 4h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 11¢ $1 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Santiago De La Fuente 8¢ $2 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 23¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $16 7h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel SELL Cosme de Ravel 60¢ $4 9h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel SELL Cosme de Ravel 55¢ $8 9h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel BUY Cosme de Ravel 47¢ $10 9h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel SELL Gilles Arnaud Bailly 59¢ $9 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $18 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $15 9h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 63¢ $10 9h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $10 10h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $5 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 100¢ $21 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 78¢ $17 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Oliver Crawford 32¢ $17 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 78¢ $19 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 70¢ $20 10h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 40¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.47 · official $33.47 (match) · 3500 history records