Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2c77…bde7 crypto 1104 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,763 (-1%) realized −$1,758 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate81%890W / 213L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$81
14 days−$146
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$1,514
sports 13% −$633
other 1% −$499
world 0% −$657
politics 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.9% -4.1% 89% 46% -3.7%
≤30d 262 +1.3% -8.4% 81% 52% -10.5%
≤90d 1103 +0.6% -9.0% 81% 46% -9.6%
all 1103 +0.6% -9.0% 81% 46% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 46% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 27% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 15% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$137 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,758
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses890 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1103 / 1104
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$196
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 72¢ 36¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$2 +4%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$26 -86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $141 +$71 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $111 +$7 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$35 +58%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $104 +$7 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $118 +$30 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $142 −$140 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 62¢ $132 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 29¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 37¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $20 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 4h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 83¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $4.44 (match) · 3500 history records