Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2C 0x2c78…aad1 sports 1708 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,260 (-3%) realized −$6,201 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%891W / 901L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$1,214est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,500
other 9% −$3,083
crypto 5% −$595
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 -50.1% -54.8% 28% 28% -48.3%
≤30d 590 -16.9% -24.8% 49% 49% -11.9%
≤90d 1479 -11.4% -19.9% 50% 49% -15.5%
all 1792 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 49% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 49% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 48% -22.5%
15% -33.8% 43% -30.0%
20% -40.3% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$78 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6,201
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses891 / 901
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,214
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1792 / 1708
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 64¢ 62¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 58¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a dra Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Knicks Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $4 12m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $25 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 29¢ $1 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $4 28m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $5 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $5 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $5 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $27 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $47 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 59¢ $9 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $14 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 17¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $5 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $10 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $6 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $57 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $23 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 26¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $3 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $12 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $20 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $51 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $10 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $27.93 (match) · 3500 history records